NASCAR 2026: Drivers at Risk of Missing the Playoffs

Following the announcement of the return of The Chase for the 2026 season, many drivers and fans eagerly awaited the end of the old playoff format. However, seven races into the season, some drivers might be missing the classic qualifying scenarios. The Cup Series is more than a quarter of the regular season, after Sunday's Cook Out 400. With the Cup Series taking a week off, it's worth taking a look at some marquee drivers who are on the NASCAR Chase Bubble right now.

Josh Berry: 55 points back. Josh Berry got Wood Brothers Racing into the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs last season with his victory on March 16 at the Pennzoil 400. More than a year later, the No. 21 team faces much longer odds of sneaking into the 16-driver, 10-race battle. The good news for Berry is that he’s coming off a season-best performance at Martinsville, placing 10th and recording 36 points. He’s earned 56 points in the last two races and has moved up double-digit spots on the points leaderboard. However, the fact that he totaled just 23 points over a four-race span from Atlanta to Las Vegas erases his margin for error moving forward. With how some of his peers have already performed this season, racing for better teams and with better equipment, making the playoffs seems highly unlikely for Berry.

Based on how the No. 8 car has performed in the seven races, and really the entire Richard Childress Racing team as a whole, even a win-and-in format wouldn’t get Kyle Busch into The Chase. This is the first time in his Cup Series career that Busch has gone the first seven races without a top 10, and his frustration with the team is evident in interviews. We haven’t seen any evidence from RCR or the No. 8 car to believe Busch won’t go three consecutive seasons without a Cup win.

Kyle Busch's winless streak and what has happened since his last win are key factors. Busch's current situation reflects significant challenges for his team and his chances this season.

Chase Briscoe: 36 points back. In his first season driving the No. 19 car with Joe Gibbs Racing, Chase Briscoe earned a spot in the Championship 4 and won three races with 15 top-five finishes. While he was certainly viewed as a championship hopeful coming into the year, it feels safe to rule Briscoe out for that before the calendar flips to April. It’s not necessarily his fault. Finishes at Daytona (36th), COTA (37th), and Phoenix (37th) were largely caused by wrecks around him or issues with the car. The why doesn’t matter in The Chase, not when you accrue 4 total points in those three races.

Now coming off consecutive finishes outside the top 10, we feel confident saying Briscoe won’t finish the regular season top 8 in points, and that means he has no real hope at a title.

Ross Chastain, with better equipment, might be a championship contender. What he’s working with this season in the No. 1 car for Trackhouse Racing might keep him out of The Chase entirely. This generally seems to be a Trackhouse issue, as evidenced by Connor Zilisch performing like Cody Ware on ovals this season. In the past, Chastain would make up for the team’s shortcomings by pulling out a win. That’s not an option, and while we’d still predict him to be one of the 16 drivers in The Chase, it’s no longer the certainty that many expected a few months ago. Austin Cindric: 18 points back. Austin Cindric's arrow is pointing upward after these last two weeks.

The fact that he’s still 18 points back of Daniel Suarez for the 16th and final spot after racking up 78 points in the last two races says a lot about the big hole he dug himself into through the first four races of the season. With the points gap narrowed, Cindric has likely given himself a bit of a margin for error, while still having a shot to grab one of the final two spots in The Chase. NASCAR standings and points leaders after Martinsville are crucial for the analysis.

The 2026 NASCAR season presents an intense battle for the playoffs, with several prominent drivers at risk of being left out. Changes in the format and team performance have created uncertainty, forcing drivers to strive to the maximum to secure their place in the final phase of the championship.

The fight for the NASCAR playoffs in 2026 is a clear example of the competitiveness and unpredictability of motorsport. Drivers must overcome constant challenges, both on and off the track, to succeed.

The pressure is high, and every race counts in the quest for the championship.