Putin Wins: US-Iran War Boosts Russia in Ukraine, Experts Say

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a surge in oil prices, directly benefiting Russia. This situation has allowed Russia to increase its revenues from oil sales, as it controls a significant portion of the world's supply. The restriction on the movement of oil through this key strait has highlighted Russia's importance as an alternative supplier, further boosting its profits.

This increase in oil revenues provides Russia with a significant economic advantage at a time when it faces sanctions and international economic pressures. The additional funds allow the Kremlin to maintain its military spending and support its operations abroad, including its involvement in the conflict in Ukraine. The current geopolitical situation, therefore, indirectly favors Russia's economic and strategic position.

The temporary suspension of certain sanctions by the United States, intended to mitigate the impact of a global energy crisis, has had the side effect of increasing Russia's revenues. This measure has allowed the Kremlin to obtain hundreds of millions of dollars more through oil sales, representing a significant financial boost in a context of economic restrictions.

According to Luke Coffey, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, Moscow is making billions of dollars more with the price of oil going up and sanctions being waived. These additional revenues strengthen Russia's ability to finance its military operations and maintain its influence in the region. The current situation demonstrates how the political and economic decisions of Western powers can have unexpected consequences on the global balance of power.

The prioritization of US weapons for the war against Iran has led to a decrease in the supply of military aid to Ukraine. This reduction in lethal aid to Kyiv provides Moscow with an advantage in its conflict to control the country. The scarcity of Ukrainian military resources hinders its ability to resist Russian aggression, which could alter the balance of power in the region.

Daniel Fried, a former US ambassador to Poland, noted that the US distraction from Ukraine benefits Russia. Maria Snegovaya, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, added that the US administration sees Ukraine as an annoyance, prioritizing the situation in Iran. This perception and the consequent reallocation of resources have significant implications for the security and stability of Ukraine.

The increase in the price of Russian oil, which rose from $57 to $115 per barrel in one month, has injected a considerable amount of resources into Moscow's war economy. This increase allows Russia to finance its military operations and maintain its defense production capacity. According to General Michael Claesson, commander of the Swedish armed forces, Russia is using these additional revenues to strengthen its defense industrial base.

Claesson highlighted that Russia has reorganized its economy to focus on war production, which has stabilized and expanded its industrial capacity. This economic and military strengthening allows Russia to maintain its pressure on Ukraine and project its influence in the region.

Former President Trump's criticism of NATO and his call for European allies to secure the Strait of Hormuz have created tensions within the transatlantic alliance. This rupture in transatlantic relations benefits Putin, who has long criticized NATO as a threat to his country's borders. Luke Coffey noted that the Kremlin could not believe its luck reading the social media posts from the White House.

Trump urged countries that cannot obtain jet fuel due to the Strait of Hormuz to buy oil from the US or take control of the strait. Daniel Fried commented that Russia can sit back and watch Trump criticize NATO, which represents a gift for Putin and weakens the cohesion of the Western alliance.