Espinosa de los Monteros and Vox Critics: Polls Reveal Potential for 1.6 Million Votes

Spanish politics is in a moment of turmoil, with internal movements within Vox that could reconfigure the political landscape. Juan Luis Steegmann, a former Vox deputy, urged calm in the face of the possibility of a split on the right, an event that could have significant consequences for the party and the electoral scenario. However, sources close to Iván Espinosa de los Monteros, former Vox spokesperson and critical of the current leadership, are handling polls that suggest considerable potential for popular support.

These polls, although not detailed publicly, suggest that a project led by Espinosa could obtain around 1.6 million votes in a general election. This support, according to estimates, would come mainly from Vox voters, which would represent a significant loss for Santiago Abascal's party.

Espinosa's dilemma lies in deciding whether to launch a new party or try to reform Vox from within. Although some sources suggest that Espinosa has not yet made a definitive decision, the idea of creating a new political formation has been present among the most moderate critics of Vox for some time. Espinosa's decision could depend on the success or failure of the internal reform attempts of the party.

The former Vox leader would be considering this step, influenced by the favorable forecasts he is handling, but also by personal and family factors. Sources consulted by El Independiente mention that Espinosa is in a good personal moment and prefers to spend time with his family.

Within Vox, a duality of reactions is observed in the face of the possible split. While some encourage the critics to make their own decisions, others express concern about the impact this could have on the party. Deputy Rocío de Meer, for example, has expressed an open position on separation. The Atenea foundation, Espinosa's think tank, has also played a role in this process, raising similar dilemmas and considering economic limitations.

In the past, contacts of Espinosa with figures from the Ibex and the real estate sector were mentioned, which suggests possible sources of financing for a new political project.

The critics are aware of the difficulties in reforming Vox and forcing an extraordinary general assembly due to the organization's opacity. The expulsion of Espinosa, along with Ortega and Antelo, could further complicate this process. However, the public visibility obtained through this struggle is valuable for any political leap. Espinosa has acknowledged having exceeded 2,000 signatures to press for a call, although between 2,900 and 3,200 signatures are required to formally open the debate.

In Vox's 2024 accounts, it was revealed that only just over 32,000 affiliates are up to date with their dues, which raises doubts about the validity of the support obtained. The website promoted to promote the initiative allows supporters to show their support, which could inflate the figures.

The internal struggle in Vox reflects ideological differences about the party's direction. Espinosa and his followers seek to restore the initial liberal character of Vox, distancing themselves from both the PP and the current national-populism. A pro-NATO proposal is sought, in line with figures such as Giorgia Meloni, and a position on immigration that prioritizes training, regularization and linking to work, instead of the total closure of borders.

Juan García-Gallardo, also critical of Vox, seems to have a different strategy, seeking a party that is tougher on immigration and focused on young people. The elections in Andalusia, on May 17, will be crucial to assess the state of Vox and the viability of any new political project. The current situation could favor Pedro Sánchez, who seeks to maintain the government with his partners.