If Your Job Involves Thinking, You Might Be in Trouble: AI Threatens Millions, Study Finds

Amid growing fears over an AI-driven jobs apocalypse, researchers are trying to get a better sense of which occupations will be most affected. Tech leaders continue to cite AI as the reason behind widespread layoffs, with economists warning that the changing dynamics could be devastating in the longer run.

The study, dubbed the 'American AI Jobs Risk Index', aims to map the occupations most vulnerable to AI and the geographic areas most affected. The findings suggest that around 9.3 million jobs in the United States are at risk of displacement in the next two to five years. Some 4.9 million workers were identified to be spread across 33 'tipping point' occupations with the highest risk.

This situation could have vast economic implications. Researchers say that only those who can leverage their existing expertise and are willing to adopt technology to gain an advantage over others will survive. Tufts University dean of global business and economist Bhaskar Chakravorti stated that AI is no longer just automating routine tasks, but is also targeting the cognitive and analytical work that defines high-skill, high-wage careers.

The jobs of the future will be secured by those with a combination of subject-matter expertise, critical-thinking skills for human judgment, and knowledge of AI and how to use it.

The index assigns an 'exposure score' to nearly 800 different occupations. The highest-risk jobs, perhaps unsurprisingly, include web and digital interface designers, web developers, database architects, computer programmers, data scientists, and financial risk specialists.

On the other end of the spectrum are blue-collar occupations, such as roofers, miners, machine operators, meat packers, welders, stonemasons, and plasterers. Other least-exposed occupations include surgical assistants, massage therapists, and fast-food counter workers.

Researchers concluded that many of the lowest-paying jobs happen to be the least exposed. Physical, manual, and variable-condition work (roofers, orderlies, dishwashers) face less than one percent displacement, they wrote. The occupations AI cannot touch are largely those the economy has always undervalued.

Previous investigations, like one by Anthropic published earlier this month, have reached similar conclusions about the impacts of AI on the labor market.

The Tufts study focuses on geography, finding that workers in major urban centers across the US are most exposed, with university towns being particularly vulnerable. Chakravorti stated that the question is no longer whether AI will displace a significant number of workers, but in which states and cities, how fast, and whether we are prepared by taking preemptive action.

The geography of this disruption has real political consequences: the states and metros most at risk are already the most active in seeking AI regulation — and the federal government is telling them to stand down. That collision will define the economic and political landscape of the next decade, he added.