Rubio Faces Skeptical Europe at Critical Moment for Iran War

Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Europe for talks with foreign ministers of the Group of 7 (G7), whose members are seething with the United States and Israel over their war against Iran. Despite this, they face few options other than to cooperate and limit the fallout. The meeting comes at a critical moment in the conflict, which has already lasted four weeks. President Trump has touted progress in negotiations with Iran to find an off-ramp, but at the same time is sending thousands of troops to the region, signaling a possible ground invasion.

Rubio participated in the G7 foreign ministers ministerial in Cernay-la-Ville, France, which officially kicked off on Thursday. Asked about the reception he would receive from G7 partners, Rubio stated: “I think they should be happy that I’m going.” He added that other countries should “step up” their efforts to secure the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed since the United States and Israel launched the war at the end of February, arguing that it is their responsibility, as they depend more on the fuel that is normally transported through that maritime route.

European countries and NATO allies are in a bind with the US and Israel's war. Allied leaders see fighting as incredibly destabilizing and dangerous, but they also have no love lost for an Iranian regime that has oppressed and killed its own people, funded terrorist attacks around the world, and stonewalled inspections of its nuclear activities. Europe is also confronting the consequences of a war it was not informed about in advance, with southern Europe within range of Iranian ballistic missiles, its military bases under attack, citizens stranded in the region amid the fighting, and the disruption of trade in the Strait of Hormuz that is plunging economies into chaos, with rising energy prices and lack of access to necessary fertilizers.

Last week, the G7 issued a joint statement condemning Iran for its “unjustifiable attacks” against Gulf and Arab countries, and stating that its member countries “stand ready to take the necessary measures to support the global supply of energy.” The statement aimed to smooth over tensions with the United States after these countries initially rebuffed Trump's calls for help in securing the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump has criticized European countries for not providing support or for not heeding calls for assistance from the United States. He has disagreed with the statements of German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who has said that “it’s not our war.” Trump called this an “inappropriate comment.” The European population is wary of getting involved in a conflict in which they did not participate, but is also concerned about having to shoulder the burden of helping Ukraine fend off Russia, according to Sudha David-Wilp, vice president of external reactions for GMF.

“They need the United States to continue cooperating on Ukraine, and so there is a sense that they don’t want to outright reject what the administration is asking because it is in Europe’s interest and it is necessary to have a constructive relationship with the White House,” she said. Trump's special envoy for peace missions, Steve Witkoff, said that he had delivered to Iran, through Pakistani intermediaries, a 15-point “action list” intended to form the framework for a peace deal, but did not reveal the specific terms.

Trump praised Iran for allowing 10 Pakistani-flagged oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz in recent days as a sign of goodwill as part of negotiation efforts. “Clearly, European allies strongly prefer to resolve this through diplomacy, finding an acceptable exit for the United States, Iran and Israel, which will not be easy to achieve,” said Ian Lesser, a distinguished fellow at the German Marshall Fund and head of the organization's Brussels office. “Much of this is that there is absolutely no clarity about what has been put on the table and what is being seriously negotiated.”

European allies are concerned about being pressured by the United States to make any “near-term military commitments,” Lesser continued. “I think they are very comfortable talking about coordinated responses on the energy security front, stockpiles, attempts to calm markets, maritime security in a broader sense,” he said. “But American demands for European participation in the short-term military dimensions of the war I think would be met with a lot of skepticism”.

In addition to the G7 members (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom), representatives from the European Union, Saudi Arabia, India, Brazil, South Korea, and Ukraine will also participate in the ministerial. The summit talks will focus on “potential avenues for negotiation that could lead to a de-escalation” of the war with Iran and the conflict in the Middle East, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and “the cessation of the Iranian regime's nuclear and ballistic missile programs”.

Regarding Ukraine, the goal is to continue supporting Kyiv with military and energy reconstruction support, and to maintain pressure on Russia, according to a report prepared by the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Other regional issues will be discussed, including the Indo-Pacific, the civil war in Sudan, instability in Haiti, peace efforts in the Gaza Strip, and Venezuela and Cuba.