Evidence Suggests Greens are Taking Votes from Reform UK

A recent report suggests that the Green Party is taking votes away from Reform UK.

For months, Reform topped the polls, and the Greens surged to unprecedented levels of support following the election of Zack Polanski as party leader. The prevailing narrative was that Reform was largely hoovering up votes from unhappy Tory voters, while the Greens were doing the same with disaffected Labour voters.

In recent weeks, Reform's support has been sliding, and new polling analysis suggests another phenomenon: the Greens taking Reform votes.

Ben Walker, writing in the New Statesman, highlighted polling of non-voters during the 2024 general election who say they are certain to vote at the next one. Last summer, almost half of this group said they would vote for Reform, but now the number is closer to one in three. At the same time, 16% of this group say they would vote Green at the next general election, up from 12%.

The key factor is that the number of non-voters in 2024 who say they are sure to vote next time around has stayed the same.

The data suggests the Greens could be tempting would-be voters who last year would have gone for Reform. Walker writes that successful results for the Greens could see them “become the first-choice option for anyone looking to keep out Reform.”

Walker notes that some voters are looking more to 'shake things up' than pursue a necessarily right or left platform.

These voters may see little difference in a Green or Reform vote. There are more of these voters than meet the eye, not least given a not insubstantial number of Green voters would prefer Nigel Farage to Keir Starmer in No 10.

It looks like Polanski and the Greens can hope to gain votes beyond the Labour party.

The polling analysis and expert commentary suggest an evolving political landscape, with the Green Party poised to significantly influence the electorate.