The poll, commissioned by the ABC newspaper, indicates that the Popular Party of Andalusia, led by Juanma Moreno, could obtain between 54 and 57 deputies in the May 17 elections. This compares to the 58 seats it won in the June 19, 2022 elections. To achieve an absolute majority in the Andalusian Parliament, 55 seats are needed. The Popular Party would obtain 43.6% of the votes, which represents an increase of five tenths compared to the previous elections.

The poll was conducted with 1,002 telephone interviews between March 24 and 27, after Juanma Moreno announced the calling of elections. The results suggest stability in the Andalusian political landscape, with the PP-A consolidating its position.

The PSOE-A, now led by María Jesús Montero, would obtain 23.8% of the votes, which is a decrease of three tenths compared to 2022. It is projected to obtain between 29 and 30 seats, a figure similar to the 30 obtained in the previous elections. The socialists achieved their worst result in Andalusian regional elections in 2022.

Vox, for its part, would remain the third political force, with 13.6% of the votes, a slight increase of one tenth. It is estimated that it would obtain between 14 and 15 deputies, very similar results to those of the previous electoral appointment.

The Por Andalucía coalition, led by Antonio Maíllo, would obtain 6.7% of the votes and five deputies, matching the 2022 results. Adelante Andalucía, with José Ignacio García as leader, could improve its percentage of votes by 1.5 points, which would allow it to obtain between four and five seats, a significant increase compared to the two seats achieved in 2022.

These results reflect a complex electoral dynamic, with the PP-A seeking to consolidate its position and the other parties struggling to maintain or improve their results in a changing political context.

The poll was conducted by GAD3 using 1,002 telephone interviews. This type of methodology seeks to reflect the opinion of Andalusian voters in a specific period of time. It is important to consider that polls are estimates and may vary with respect to the final results of the elections.

The date of the poll, just after the announcement of the elections, is key to understanding the impact of recent political events on voting intentions. The results offer a snapshot of the feelings of voters at a crucial moment.

The results of this poll will likely influence the campaign strategies of the political parties. The PP-A could focus its efforts on consolidating its voter base and mobilizing those who have not yet decided their vote. The PSOE-A and Vox, on the other hand, will seek to mobilize their voters and try to attract undecided voters to improve their results.

Attention will focus on the smaller parties, such as Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía, who could be key to forming coalitions or influencing the final result of the elections.